Africa Oil Demand Set to Rise Sharply

Oil Drums

Africa’s request for refined lipid products is projected to summation from astir 4 cardinal barrels per time successful 2024 to implicit 6 cardinal barrels per time by 2050, according to the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) 2026 Outlook Report, The State of African Energy.

Authored by AEC Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk, the study emphasizes that colonisation growth, urbanization, and industrialization volition thrust this surge, creating important opportunities for vigor information and economical development. With Africa’s colonisation expected to scope astir 2.4 cardinal by 2050, per capita consumption, presently among the lowest globally, is anticipated to rise, peculiarly successful sub Saharan countries.

The study highlights Africa arsenic the continent apt to pb planetary gasoline request maturation implicit the agelong term, with depletion projected to transcend 2.2 cardinal barrels per time by 2050. Nigeria already dominates continental gasoline demand, yet its per capita usage remains comparatively low. In established markets similar Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa, request is expected to stagnate successful the aboriginal 2040s owed to improving substance system and electrical conveyance adoption.

Diesel volition spot adjacent much pronounced growth, with depletion expected to summation by astir 880,000 barrels per time by 2050, astir 50 percent from existent levels, driven by mining, transportation, and infrastructure expansion, peculiarly successful Angola, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zimbabwe.

Jet substance and kerosene depletion is rebounding strongly, projected to emergence 65 percent by 2050 arsenic intra determination aerial question and tourism expand. Meanwhile, liquefied petroleum state (LPG) adoption for cleanable cooking remains low, with lone 20 cardinal tonnes consumed annually.

The study notes that implicit 900 cardinal Africans deficiency entree to cleanable cooking solutions, relying connected wood, dung, coal, oregon paraffin. The power to LPG would trim particulate substance by 98 percent and prevention 1.2 cardinal hectares of wood annually, representing a 4th of planetary deforestation. The conversion to LPG cooking would besides chopped achromatic c emissions by 117 cardinal tonnes of c dioxide equivalent each year. Yet maturation remains constrained by regulatory, financing, and organisation challenges.

According to the report, Africa volition necessitate implicit USD 20 cardinal successful downstream infrastructure concern by 2050 to conscionable increasing refined merchandise needs. Flagship projects specified arsenic Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, on with smaller initiatives successful Angola and Uganda, are indispensable but insufficient unsocial to conscionable the continent’s anticipated consumption.

Ayuk stated that the study underscores Africa’s vigor aboriginal arsenic 1 of immense growth. He added that policymakers, investors, and planetary partners indispensable prioritize section refining, businesslike trading, and cleaner substance adoption to conscionable the needs of 2.4 cardinal radical by mid century.

Forecasts suggest that the continent’s colonisation could swell by much than 930 cardinal people, reaching astir 2.4 cardinal by 2050, which would relationship for 25 percent of the world’s colonisation and 63 percent of planetary colonisation maturation betwixt present and then. Economic projections are arsenic substantial, with Africa’s 2050 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected to astir triple from existent levels to astir USD 7.8 trillion aft increasing astatine a compound yearly maturation complaint of 3.8 to 3.9 percent successful the coming decades.

Currently, contempt representing 18 percent of the planetary population, Africa consumes little than 5 percent of the world’s lipid products and contributes conscionable 3 percent to planetary GDP. This disparity indicates untapped potential.

The study reveals that gasoline volition stay the backbone of idiosyncratic and commercialized mobility, particularly successful little developed regions wherever economical enactment requires roadworthy transport. Though alternate powertrains similar electrical vehicles volition penetrate the market, they’ll bash truthful dilatory owed to inadequate energy proviso and the scarcity of charging infrastructure.

Diesel request maturation positions Africa arsenic the apical maturation portion for the product, surpassing Latin America. The substance remains captious for dense manufacture and extractive operations crossed the continent, with mining companies and infrastructure projects driving sustained depletion increases.

The aviation sector’s betterment follows years of subdued enactment during planetary disruptions. As African economies grow and mediate people populations grow, aerial question wrong the continent is expected to summation substantially, peculiarly connected routes connecting large commercialized centers and tourer destinations.

The study notes that smaller, little developed markets volition pb the economical charge, amplifying request for vigor intensive activities. This inclination suggests that countries presently categorized arsenic frontier markets whitethorn look arsenic important vigor consumers implicit the adjacent 2 decades.

Stakeholders are urged to ore concern connected cardinal areas similar refining capacity, trading networks, and adoption of cleaner fuels if Africa is to beryllium prepared for the 2050 projections. The study emphasizes that portion galore precocious economies are moving to trim their dependence connected lipid and gas, Africa is adjacent successful enactment to payment from its ain resources.

The State of African Energy 2026 Outlook was developed successful concern with S&P Global Commodity Insights and launched astatine African Energy Week: Invest successful African Energies 2025 league successful Cape Town. The study provides broad investigation into assorted facets of the African vigor sector, detailing challenges and opportunities successful hydrocarbons, renewable energy, power, concern and technology.